Determinants of Hybrid Banana Adoption and Intensity Among Smallholder Farmers in Uganda: A Censored Regression Analysis

Abstract

Bananas underpin Uganda’s food security and rural economy, but productivity is declining due to emerging pests, diseases, and declining soil fertility. To address these challenges, hybrid stress-tolerant banana varieties (HBVs) have been developed and released, but their adoption remains uneven across the country. This study analyzes the spatial distribution and determinants of HBV adoption and intensity in Uganda, providing new insights to inform scaling strategies. A cross-sectional survey of 624 banana-farming households was conducted across 24 districts in both traditional and non-traditional banana-growing regions. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and a Tobit regression model to capture both the binary decision to adopt and the intensity of adoption, measured as the number of HBV mats planted. Results showed significant regional variation; adoption was highest in Northern Uganda (73.9%) and lowest in Central and Southwestern regions (≈24%). Education and land size positively influenced adoption, while reliance on planting materials from fellow farmers consistently reduced adoption intensity across all regions. Gender and household structure also shaped adoption patterns, with male and married farmers more likely to plant larger areas of HBVs. The findings highlight the need for regionally tailored interventions, including strengthening formal seed systems, enhancing farmer knowledge, and addressing gender gaps in technology access. Strengthening institutional seed channels and extension support can accelerate HBV scaling and contribute to resilient banana production in Uganda.